Paperback Edition
Paperback
200 pages
$25.95
Choose vendor to order paperback edition
BrownWalker Press Amazon.com Barnes & Noble Harvard Book Store Return policy
PDF eBook
Sample Preview
Size 217k
Free
Download a sample of the first 25 pages
Download Preview

Entire PDF eBook
2121k
$17
Get instant access to an entire eBook
Buy PDF Password Download Complete PDF
eBook editions

Reachable Futures, Structural Change, and the Practical Credibility of Environmental Simulation Models

by Olufemi O. Osidele
small book icon  Paperback   small ebook icon   eBook PDF
Publisher:  Dissertation
Pub date:  2002
Pages:  200
ISBN-10:  1581121474
ISBN-13:  9781581121476
Categories:  Earth and Environmental Sciences  Business & Economics  Social Science

Abstract

Simulation modeling is arguably the most versatile scientific tool for predicting the future environment. However, the reliability of model-based predictions is limited to the behavior domain defined by the historical data employed for conceptualizing and calibrating the model. Future changes in external inputs and internal structure tend to produce system behavior significantly different from prior predictions. To abate this seeming lack of credibility, it is now customary to qualify model predictions with uncertainty estimates. This dissertation explores the complementary approach of back-casting future scenarios. Centered on the analysis of uncertainty, a methodological framework is developed for the computational evaluation of environmental futures, driven by stakeholder participation as a means for establishing credibility in the model. The analysis reveals possible structural change between the observed past and speculated future scenarios by comparing the ranking of key sources of uncertainty in model outputs. Three sampling-based methods are employed: Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis (RSA), Tree-Structured Density Estimation (TSDE), and Uniform Covering by Probabilistic Rejection (UCPR). RSA and TSDE are tested for identifying and ranking the key factors that influence ecological behavior in Lake Oglethorpe, Georgia, and UCPR, for recovering parameters of a rainfall-runoff model of an experimental watershed near Loch Ard, Scotland. The framework is applied to an integrated assessment of ecological behavior in Lake Lanier, Georgia. Stakeholders' fears and desires for the future state of the reservoir are elicited and encoded for analysis. The results indicate: (i) that the desired future is more reachable, and accompanied by more significant structural change, than the feared future, and (ii) that sediment-water-nutrient interactions, secondary production, and microbial processes play a critical role in the future ecological behavior of the reservoir. Thus, it is possible to: (i) confirm or refute stakeholder concerns for the future environment, (ii) inform priorities for future environmental policy actions, (iii) identify critical gaps in current knowledge, in order to prioritize future scientific research, and (iv) promote adaptive community learning, through the continual mutual feedback between scenario-generation and systematic analysis. By bridging the gap between stakeholder imagination and scientific theory, through computational analysis, the framework provides a promising direction for integrated environmental assessment.
0



Paperback Edition
Paperback
200 pages
$25.95
Choose vendor to order paperback edition
BrownWalker Press Amazon.com Barnes & Noble Harvard Book Store Return policy
PDF eBook
Sample Preview
Size 217k
Free
Download a sample of the first 25 pages
Download Preview

Entire PDF eBook
2121k
$17
Get instant access to an entire eBook
Buy PDF Password Download Complete PDF
eBook editions
Share this book



Relevant events
OCT
3
SSCONFERENCE
2nd International Conference on Social Sciences The 2nd International Conference on Social Sciences will take place on the 03-05 of October in one of the most iconic cities in the world – Milan, Italy. Milan holds immense historical, cultural, and philosophical signific...
2nd International Conference on Social Sciences The 2nd International Conference on Social Sciences will take place on the 03-05 of October in one of the most iconic cities in the world – Milan, ...
2nd International Conference on Social Sciences The 2nd International Conference on Social Sciences will take place on th...
2nd International Conference on Social Sciences The 2nd International Conference on Social Scien...
03 - 05 Oct 2025
Milan, Italy
OCT
3
GLOBALCME
2nd Global Conference on Management and Economics The 2nd Global Conference on Management and Economics (GLOBALCME) will take place on 03-05 October 2025 in Milan, Italy. A city steeped in history, Milan offers attendees a unique setting that inspires both intellectual an...
2nd Global Conference on Management and Economics The 2nd Global Conference on Management and Economics (GLOBALCME) will take place on 03-05 October 2025 in Milan, Italy. A city steeped in history,...
2nd Global Conference on Management and Economics The 2nd Global Conference on Management and Economics (GLOBALCME) will ta...
2nd Global Conference on Management and Economics The 2nd Global Conference on Management and Econ...
03 - 05 Oct 2025
Milan, Italy
OCT
15
NexGen Banking Summit 15th - 16th, October, 2025 Join us on October 15th-16th, 2025, at the Hilton Hotel in London for the first-ever summit focused on how Generative AI is changing banking! With 78% of banks already using or planning to use this technology, it’s clear t...
NexGen Banking Summit 15th - 16th, October, 2025 Join us on October 15th-16th, 2025, at the Hilton Hotel in London for the first-ever summit focused on how Generative AI is changing banking! With ...
NexGen Banking Summit 15th - 16th, October, 2025 Join us on October 15th-16th, 2025, at the Hilton Hotel in London for the...
NexGen Banking Summit 15th - 16th, October, 2025 Join us on October 15th-16th, 2025, at the Hilto...
15 - 16 Oct 2025
London, United Kingdom
OCT
17
3SCONF 2025
8th World Conference on Social Sciences Studies 🌍 Why Attend 3SCONF 2025? 8th World Conference on Social Sciences Studies 📍 Lyon, France | 📅 17–19 October 2025 Join leading voices in social sciences at 3SCONF 2025—a dynamic international forum set in the histo...
8th World Conference on Social Sciences Studies 🌍 Why Attend 3SCONF 2025? 8th World Conference on Social Sciences Studies 📍 Lyon, France | 📅 17–19 October 2025 Join leading voices in so...
8th World Conference on Social Sciences Studies 🌍 Why Attend 3SCONF 2025? 8th World Conference on Social Sciences Stu...
8th World Conference on Social Sciences Studies 🌍 Why Attend 3SCONF 2025? 8th World Conferen...
17 - 19 Oct 2025
Lyon, France
OCT
17
WORLDMBE
8th World Conference on Management, Business and Economics (WORLDMBE) Join Us at WORLDMBE 2025! 8th World Conference on Management, Business and Economics 📍 Lyon, France | 📅 October 19–21, 2025 Immerse yourself in innovation and discovery at WORLDMBE 2025—a leading international confe...
8th World Conference on Management, Business and Economics (WORLDMBE) Join Us at WORLDMBE 2025! 8th World Conference on Management, Business and Economics 📍 Lyon, France | 📅 October 19–21, 2025 Immerse yourself...
8th World Conference on Management, Business and Economics (WORLDMBE) Join Us at WORLDMBE 2025! 8th World Conference on Management, Business a...
8th World Conference on Management, Business and Economics (WORLDMBE) Join Us at WORLDMBE 2025! 8th World Conference ...
17 - 19 Oct 2025
Lyon, France
OCT
24
The 5th Int’l Conference on Human Resource and Enterprise Management(CHREM 2025) The 5th Int’l Conference on Human Resource and Enterprise Management(CHREM 2025) Oct. 24-26, 2025 Xiamen, China Website:https://www.academicx.org/CHREM/2025/ Website:Oct. 24-26, 2025 Venue:Xiamen, China Email:edit...
The 5th Int’l Conference on Human Resource and Enterprise Management(CHREM 2025) The 5th Int’l Conference on Human Resource and Enterprise Management(CHREM 2025) Oct. 24-26, 2025 Xiamen, China Website:https://www.academicx...
The 5th Int’l Conference on Human Resource and Enterprise Management(CHREM 2025) The 5th Int’l Conference on Human Resource and Enterprise Management(CHRE...
The 5th Int’l Conference on Human Resource and Enterprise Management(CHREM 2025) The 5th Int’l Conference on Human Resource and E...
24 - 26 Oct 2025
Xiamen, China, China
OCT
24
CEBMM 2025
2025 14th International Conference on Economics, Business and Marketing Management (CEBMM 2025) Publication: The excellent accepted and registered full papers of CEBMM 2025 will be recommended to be published into Journal of Advanced Management Science or International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance. Jou...
2025 14th International Conference on Economics, Business and Marketing Management (CEBMM 2025) Publication: The excellent accepted and registered full papers of CEBMM 2025 will be recommended to be published into Journal of Advanced Manageme...
2025 14th International Conference on Economics, Business and Marketing Management (CEBMM 2025) Publication: The excellent accepted and registered full papers of CEBMM ...
24 - 26 Oct 2025
Singapore, Singapore
OCT
24
ICEBA 2025
2025 11th International Conference on E-Business and Applications (ICEBA 2025) Paper Publishing and Indexing: Submitted papers must be original and contain work that has not been published before or is under review elsewhere. Accepted papers will be published in the ICEBA 2025 Conference proceeding...
2025 11th International Conference on E-Business and Applications (ICEBA 2025) Paper Publishing and Indexing: Submitted papers must be original and contain work that has not been published before or is under review elsewhere...
2025 11th International Conference on E-Business and Applications (ICEBA 2025) Paper Publishing and Indexing: Submitted papers must be original and co...
2025 11th International Conference on E-Business and Applications (ICEBA 2025) Paper Publishing and Indexing: Submitted paper...
24 - 26 Oct 2025
Singapore, Singapore
OCT
24
RSCONF
3rd Global Conference on Research in Social Sciences (RSCONF) Conference Overview The 3rd Global Conference on Research in Social Sciences (RSCONF) will be held in Oxford, UK, from 24-26 October 2025. This global event brings together top scholars and professionals to explore innova...
3rd Global Conference on Research in Social Sciences (RSCONF) Conference Overview The 3rd Global Conference on Research in Social Sciences (RSCONF) will be held in Oxford, UK, from 24-26 October 2025. This gl...
3rd Global Conference on Research in Social Sciences (RSCONF) Conference Overview The 3rd Global Conference on Research in Social Scie...
3rd Global Conference on Research in Social Sciences (RSCONF) Conference Overview The 3rd Global Conference o...
24 - 26 Oct 2025
Oxford, United Kingdom
OCT
24
ICABME
10th International Conference on Advanced Research in Business, Management and Economics 10th International Conference on Advanced Research in Business, Management, and Economics Dates: 24 – 26 October 2025 Location: Geneva, Switzerland Venue: Domaine Barton, Geneva Graduate Institute, Villa Barton We a...
10th International Conference on Advanced Research in Business, Management and Economics 10th International Conference on Advanced Research in Business, Management, and Economics Dates: 24 – 26 October 2025 Location: Geneva, Switzerla...
10th International Conference on Advanced Research in Business, Management and Economics 10th International Conference on Advanced Research in Business, Managemen...
24 - 26 Oct 2025
Geneva, Switzerland